I mean Monero passes the Lindy Effect test too. It’s 12 years old and a top 20 coin, so it’s not like this infographic is a dunk on XMR. If the goal in mind (with respect to BCH “losing out” to XMR) is global reserve currency, XMR is ahead in privacy features and BCH is ahead in scalability and VM capabilities. But planet-scale currency needs both and the path to get there is much clearer and cleaner for BCH than XMR. BCH has CashFusion and additional privacy mechanisms are buildable, so “privacy” is much easier to solve on BCH than “scale” is to solve on XMR.

People point at BTC as evidence that blockchain technology is energy inefficient. Bitcoin itself represents a staggering waste of energy, but a blockchain allowed to scale very quickly becomes the most energy-efficient payment system on the planet. Mining a block requires the same amount of energy whether it contains a hundred transactions or a billion.

I think very probably they will continue to exist.

Today their three main functions are:

1 - “we keep your money ‘safe’”

2 - issuing loans

3 - money creation via fractional reserves

Even if we assume that fractional reserve banking becomes impossible after people become unwilling to accept “a promise that can be redeemed for bitcoin later” (whatever form that ends up taking) rather than actual bitcoin, and even if we assume a massive shift in public mind-state such that everyone becomes comfortable holding their own money rather than trusting it to an institution (which I think is unlikely, at least until the wrench attack problem is solved), I think the loan-issuance need will still be met by something resembling a bank.

Obviously de-fi enables the possibility of overcollateralized loans without needing to ask anybody’s permission and without having to convince anyone that the loan is a good idea, but a bank makes it possible to take out a loan to get started with something - go to school, start a business, buy a house - without having anything to work with other than a hypothetical ability to earn money and a promise to pay it back. The bank has mechanisms to estimate the likelihood of that outcome, set an interest rate that makes it worth their while to take the risk, and direct connections to real-world enforcement mechanisms to prevent the borrower from just taking the money and running. If you remove the entity that is capable of establishing the connection between default and real-world consequences, “starter loans” become impossible.

So I think purpose #3 will be gone, purpose #1 will be diminished but not gone, and purpose #2 will keep them in existence and profitable.

1 Year Prediction - BCH, which he calls a failed fork, will have a market cap at least two orders of magnitude larger than eCash 2, or whatever his fork ends up being called.

I very much hope the CashTokens stablecoin ecosystem continues to grow over time (both in TVL and protocol variety). With Moria offline for now, the full BCH stablecoin marketcap right now is ~$0.4m - compare to Ethereum at ~$175,000m - so ~31x larger base cap, but ~437,500x larger stablecoin space.

Long-term, stablecoins will necessarily die along with fiat. But I believe they will be a stepping stone and if BCH can establish itself as “a place where stablecoins are” in the same way that Ethereum, TRON, and Solana have but with the added benefit of being actually decentralized and with silky smooth and as-cheap-as-possible transactions, that would be amazing.