He runs an analytics company and was specifically touting how his models showed a quick Russian victory, even weeks into the invasion, which was more than just the usual Besserwisserism among western europeans towards eastern Europe. If the whole shtick is that the mainstream is lame but my patented crystal ball actually tells the future from first principles and you then tank even harder than the mainstream, you not only embarrass yourself but reveal your own preferences as well.
And the mainstream predictions in the West of Ukrainian resistance weren’t as negative as what he advanced, which is precisely why many refused to believe the Kremlin would actually step on this rake of a war. That he wholeheartedly defended a quick Russian victory made him seem steeped more in the Kremlin’s narratives than the West’s, even as all imperial powers tend to be hubristic.
Yeah, the party-line was far from realistic and reflected the West’s own imperial hubris, but there’s a spectrum there. When the fullscale invasion finally happened, the Jake Sullivans weren’t going around for weeks about how Ukraine is doomed. And again, there was at least some room in the mainstream for eastern europeans or even just people who had traveled in Ukraine and understood the country & the people. In that regard Samo shares much more with the vatniks (sorry, the “realists”) like John Mearsheimer and The Economist, who kept (and still keep) telling people Russia would win any day now.