

Who would have thunk it?
Marxist-Leninist ☭
French 🇫🇷
he/him
Study physics ⚛️


Who would have thunk it?


I don’t believe this is likely.
Your comparison with Venezuela here neglect just how vastly different the 2 situations are. Not only is Venezuela far weaker militarily, they are also far closer to the US and their only trade routes to Eurasia are by boat which the US navy can easily intercept. Meanwhile Iran is on the same continent as China and Russia’s immense supply chains and industrial bases, they have a huge industrial base of their own, they mostly make their own weapons, they have huge sea and land trade networks.
Between the western economies making it clear to the whole world that they are now a sinking ship and the fact that even if the US can somehow block the maritime routes between Iran and China, Iran would still have land roads that the US has no ability to blockade whatsoever; making such a deal would make no sense for Iran.
Yes, Iran would not win from a prolong fight with the US, but they not lose from it either, in fact they are likely able to sustain the attrition of that kind of fight for far longer than the US could, especially with Chinese and Russian supply chains being right there on the same continent as them.


The only way it would last only weeks is if the US navy gets repelled or destroyed without ever touching boots on Iranian soil. There is no scenario in which the war lasts only weeks and the US wins. One or both of these propositions necessarily has to be false.


Apparently, the drone cost 20,000$. Meanwhile the fighter jet fuel, not to mention the missile, cost several millions of $. Whatever the reason, the cost to both sides wasn’t considered. Either the carrier crew panicked, or they think they have reasons to believe it was worth the cost for other reasons. Maybe they are trying to provoke Iran.


The difference is: China has tons of machines and factory robots to plug AI models into, the US doesn’t. Meaning China gets to use their AI for actual useful purposes while the US can only use their’s for speculation and slop generation.
What’s the status of the bases that have been hit? I’ve seen report that they were devastated (~70% destroyed). Also, are there any bases that haven’t been hit yet?