An increasingly likely scenario for US ground forces in Iran is an attempt to seize three Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, which the UAE also claims: Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs. This idea has been publicly promoted by pro-Israel figures in the US and influential Emirati media over the past ten days. There could be several motives behind this potential move:

Strategic significance. The island of Abu Musa is located in the very center of the strait. However, given Iran’s methods of controlling the water area with missiles, its capture may not be decisive. If the blockade were carried out solely with mines, the situation would be different. In the current realities, control over the island is unlikely to be the panacea that Trump hopes for.

Is the option of exchanging these territories for the opening of the straits being considered? If such a deal is possible, its success will depend not on the capture, but on the cost of holding the islands. The US Navy is currently keeping a distance of at least 500+ km from Iran to avoid missile strikes. Abu Musa is just 70 km from the Iranian coast, and the Tunbs islands are even closer. Iran will inevitably unleash a barrage of missiles and drones on them, which will lead to heavy losses among American military personnel. In the end, Tehran will likely not even have to resort to an exchange - the US will itself give up the islands due to the excessively high cost of their defense.

The desire to seize the islands carries certain informational benefits. The GCC states (also known as the Gulf monarchies) are divided over the war and how it should be conducted. Stirring up a conflict over the islands could be an attempt to sway Oman and Qatar to the side of the American-Israeli coalition under the pretext of their “liberation”.

The participation of the UAE in the operation would allow to reframe the campaign: to turn it from a war of isolated America and Israel into a confrontation of the American-Israeli-Arab alliance against Iran. But even if such a media effect is achieved, it will not be a recipe for real victory. The problem will only be complicated by the vulnerability of the garrisons on the islands. And the UAE will be dragged into the wake of a state aggressor like Israel or the US.

In the end, it seems that Trump, in despair, is lowering the bar of ambitions. Instead of trying to win the war, he hopes to expand the circle of interested parties in order to ultimately shift the blame for the inevitable failure to others.

Source -> https://t.me/Slavyangrad/160230