Ukraine just launched the largest drone attack of the war against Moscow, bringing the war home to the residents of the Russian capital city. And this is just the beginning. This wasn’t a lucky strike, it was the result of months of slowly degrading Russian air defense across the country to where Putin can no longer protect everything, everywhere.
The turning point has been passed, with great velocity.
I’m curious about the success rates of Ukrainian drones. Ukraine usually reports how many Russian drones/missiles/etc were launched and how many they took down. Lately that adds up to 5-10% of Russian drones not being taken down (which is insanely low, but still way to high considering the volume of drones launched). However, Russia only reports how many they shot down, but not the total, so it’s unclear how many Ukrainian drones make it through. The number of targets hit is obviously increasing, but I’m not sure if that’s due to Ukraine launching more drones or due to a higher hit rate (or both).
Its propably because russia just sucks at air defense.
Firstly, ukraine destroyed and continues destroying russian air defense systems, and russia already running out of them, and forced to use it only for highest priority objects.
Secondly, russia did not learn from ukraine, and does not have any counter drone systems and units.
Thirdly, russia is gigantic country, territorially. Its just impossible to protect such a huge airspace, especially from tiny low flying drones.