Chad Xi.jpeg
Do nothing.
Win.
And failing
46 minute: China’s proposal
40 minute: divergence between elite and electorate
Is that true? At least for a war against Russia the majority seems willing to fight.
There’s a reason all the parties in charge of the major European countries are polling under 20% now. Look at France, Germany, and UK as prime examples. The regimes are deeply unpopular. And even despite all the propaganda, vast majority of people don’t have an interest in actually fighting Russia. AfD in Germany, RN and Progressive Front in France all have anti war platform. A party that’s against the war just won massively in Bulgaria as well.
In Germany, no party in parliament would oppose a war against Russia. At most the AfD would, but the AfD seems to be split between pro Russia and pro USA forces. So if the US do their homework there won’t be an opposition.
People on the street may oppose the war but they don’t make the decision.
AfD is polling like at 30% now and it’s by far the most popular party. So, when the next election comes they’re very likely to be the dominant force in German politics. Especially given that the economy can only get worse in the mean time. And what do you think the chances of the US doing their homework are given what we see unfolding in Iran?
AfD is polling like at 30% now
Even with 49% they can’t prevent the decision for war.
And what do you think the chances of the US doing their homework are given what we see unfolding in Iran?
I believe in Trump as a mad man figure head. The US are decoupling. They may have been surprised by the number of hits and the number of rockets but they couldn’t expect a regime change. The shutting down of the strait was expected by them. It’s the world that had to be eased into accepting the chaos that is going to come. A burning Middle East has always been the prediction for a war with Iran and it has always been said that it can’t be conquered. The US has no invasion force there so the current situation is part of the plan. People accept it because it is explicable and thus excusable because of Trump.
The US is doing their homework in Europe. There will be age verification on the internet. The police is going to use Palantir. The economy will depend on US AI services. Europe will be ready when people don’t accept Trump as an excuse anymore. The economy will switch to weapons manufacturing so the problems will be postponed.
Your original question was whether there is a disconnect between the public and the elites, and the answer is that there is. You’re now moving to the discussion of whether AfD would actually be able to stop the war or not. That’s a separate question. Also, there’s a good chance it’s a moot question given the economic shock from the war on Iran in Europe. It simply might not be possible for Europe to keep supporting Ukraine materially in the near future.
And I agree that the attack on Iran goes beyond Trump, but my point is that the execution was very much bungled in every way imaginable. If this was done under, say Obama, they would’ve come up with a solid pretext, got allied on board, and managed the narrative a lot more skilfully. Trump admin didn’t bother with any of that, and this is creating real problems for the US geopolitically because everybody can see clearly what the empire is doing here. There isn’t even attempt to hide it.
But the real target isn’t actually Iran, the goal appears to be to disrupt energy shipments to Asia to create instability and dependence on US energy exports. This is the same playbook that was used to cut Europe off from cheap Russian energy. And once the US starts having influence over countries by controlling their energy supplies they will drive their politics to turn them into proxies against China the same way Europe was turned into a proxy against Russia.
Going back to Europe, the real question is how much of this the public is willing to swallow. The age verification and other ways to stifle free speech is not going to go over well when people are already angry. And switching to weapons manufacturing will necessitate further austerity. Personally, I don’t think that’s even possible to do in practical terms with the energy prices being what they are. Remember the whole plan to produce 1.5 million shells for Ukraine? I expect this will work out in a similar way. The EU will make a slush fund, a bunch of people will line their pockets, and nothing much will actually materialize in the end.
That’s a separate question.
Sorry, that was sloppy. My point is that the AfD is not the majority of the public so there is not a complete disconnect.
It simply might not be possible for Europe to keep supporting Ukraine materially
It will be funny if Europe switches to a planned economy. As long as the raw materials are available I expect Europe to deliver.
There isn’t even attempt to hide it.
I think the US fundamentally switched communication strategies. The internet reveals everything. It has become impossible to maintain moral superiority for neocolonial wars. The US embraced that and installed a president who hides the truth in plain sight.
Thiel and the scapegoat theories remind me too much of Trump. https://read.lukeburgis.com/p/peter-thiel-on-rene-girard
But the real target isn’t actually Iran, the goal appears to be to disrupt energy shipments to Asia
Agree. I read something about Alaska terminals. Though I think Iran would be helpful for supply routes against Russia, like it was in ww2.
Personally, I don’t think that’s even possible to do in practical terms with the energy prices being what they are.
Tariffs are supposed to end the US trade deficit which gifted resources to the US. I think the higher energy costs replace that. At least Germany always handed some surplus over to the US. So I expect the economy to keep working.
AfD looks like it’s the single most popular party now, and their support keeps growing while other parties are declining. Seems that them connecting the war to the economic decline people are feeling is a key reason. Polls also show the war to be unpopular, for example: https://en.yenisafak.com/world/most-germans-want-merz-to-hold-direct-talks-with-putin-poll-reveals-3714541
And even with a planned economy, the big issue is energy. Europe is now almost entirely dependent on the US, and until that problem is solved there’s not much that can change.
And agree, the US is now an openly predatory power that’s squeezing their vassals for all it can. The mask is completely off now.
The big difference from WW2 is modern China which is the biggest industrial base in the world by far. What I expect will happen is a lot of Eurasia will get integrated in trade over land. Pakistan already opened six routes from Iran just recently. We’re likely going to see more of that.
The other flaw with the American plan is that it assumes fossil fuels are the only game in town. I expect Asia will now double down on Chinese solar panels as an alternative, and the demand for oil and gas is never going to come back to previous levels.
And yeah the whole tariff policy was a huge failure. The US industry is actually shrinking right now. But again, Europe needs to get off American energy to actually start developing. Chinese renewables are the obvious choice, but seems like there’s still a lot of sinophobia in the EU.
