These are interesting anecdotes, but I’m just going based on the most recent studies available. I think overall we can say the jury is out, but as models and established best practices improve, there will almost certainly be some level of improvement. Maybe not everywhere with every company, but for those who know how to leverage it properly.
That study is from early last year, and those who conducted it now question the methodology and have found in a later revised study they did with newer models and more robust experimental design that their latest estimate is between 5% slow down in work (mainly amongst new devs) and a 38% speed up (for experienced devs).
Have they factored in AI/robotics increasing individual productivity?
Wildfires seem to be up all over the world. Totally normal weather patterns, I’m sure…