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Joined 8 months ago
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Cake day: April 7th, 2025

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  • Russia’s economy is in for a very rough long-term decline, according to practically all economists from within Russia and abroad, as Putin’s war made the situation in the country even worse than it was before.

    In 2023, one year after the invasion started, there was an interview with Natalia Zubarevich, a Professor of the Department of Economic And Social Geography of Russia at the Moscow State University, claiming that in Russia ‘there will be no collapses, but rather a viscous, slow sinking into Bbackwardness.’ More than two years old, the interview is still highly accurate imho, and Ms. Zubarevich has foreseen everything so far.

    Most economist also agree with your mentioned notion that Ukraine will get some help from the West to rebuild the country, and they may even be able to convince some Ukrainian refugees to return, and some migrants to settle in Ukraine.

    The same is highly unlikely for Russia, though. Even long before the war, Putin’s government led many experts to a devastating conclusion for the brain drain from the country reveals that the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization has failed and deepens Russia’s longer-term problems, as the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in 2019 wrote, for example:

    It is estimated that 1.6 to 2 million people have emigrated from Russia during the nearly 20-year period of Vladimir Putinʼs rule. In the light of these figures, some researchers talk about the fifth wave of emigration in Russian history. Emigration has accelerated particularly since Putin began his third presidency in 2012, and in 2017, for example, an estimated 377,000 people moved out of Russia.

    So there is hope for Ukraine, but I don’t know of a single study that says the same about Russia.











  • But India’s Russian oil shipments are expected to slow starting in November after the U.S. sanctioned two major suppliers last month in an effort to end Moscow’s war in Ukraine. This prompted Indian refiners to pause new orders and look for alternatives in spot markets.

    I don’t know why such headlines about India continuing to buy Russian crude are popping up frequently. This is short-term only.

    India’s top importer Reliance Industries Ltd, which has a long-term supply contract with Russia’s Rosneft, has already announced it will stop taking Russian crude. And so have Mangalore Refinery, Petrochemicals Ltd (two other major refiners from India, both state-controlled) as well as HPCL-Mittal Energy, a joint venture of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal’s Mittal Energy and the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.

    All these companies will stop buying from Russia by the end of this quarter as by their own announcements. Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the US.

    This is already known for some time, you’d find many reports on web (I’ve even read posts about it here on Lemmy if I am not mistaken, but I am not sure about that).